Jacob R. Tucker

Research

My research interests are in the political psychology of autocracies with a regional focus on Russia and the Former Soviet Union. My dissertation explores the questions of why authoritarian citizens consume propaganda and, when they do, why they trust and believe it. Beyond these substantive concerns, I am also interested in survey methods, experimental design, and the application of artificial intelligence to social science research design.

Publications and Works in Progress

  • World Building in Authoritarian Regimes: A Hierarchical Model of Belief Formation

    Working Paper

    Updated on

    This paper introduces a hierarchical model of belief formation under authoritarian regimes, showing how propaganda systematically reshapes low-level perceptions into high-level political evaluations over time. Using longitudinal survey data and Russian propaganda content, it demonstrates that factual information, more than opinion-based narratives, drives belief updating, offering a new perspective on the gradual, structured nature of authoritarian persuasion.

  • The international political economy data resource.

    Published

    Graham, B.A.T., Tucker, J.R. The international political economy data resource. Review of International Organizations 14, 149–161 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11558-017-9285-0

    The International Political Economy Data Resource standardizes and merges 951 variables from 78 core datasets into a single, annually updated resource, streamlining data management for researchers and educators in international relations. Available via multiple platforms, it enhances efficiency, reduces errors, and supports robustness checks, replication, and realistic teaching exercises.

  • Countering Authoritarian Propaganda: Perceived Expertise and Persuasiveness

    Under Review

    Updated on

    Co-Authored with Isabella K.M. DeSisto, Laura Howells, Grigore Pop-Eleches

    This study examines when anti-regime messages persuade individuals in authoritarian regimes to update their political attitudes, focusing on the role of source credibility. Using observational and experimental survey data from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, it demonstrates that criticism of the regime is more persuasive when delivered by subject-matter experts.

  • The Threshold Effect: Separating Preference Falsification from Weak Preferences in Russian War Support

    Working Paper

    Updated on

    Co-Authored with Isabella K.M. DeSisto Grigore Pop-Eleches

    This study introduces a method to distinguish between preference falsification and the “threshold effect” in list experiments, where respondents may reveal different levels of support for a sensitive issue depending on the survey setting. Applying this approach to survey data from Russia, it finds that most discrepancies in support for Russia’s war in Ukraine stem from the threshold effect rather than falsification. The findings highlight the need for caution when using list experiments to study public opinion in authoritarian regimes.

  • The Consequences of Wartime Casualties in Russia

    Working Paper

    Updated on

    Co-Authored with Isabella K.M. DeSisto Laura Howells Grigore Pop-Eleches

    This study examines how personal exposure to casualties affects wartime attitudes in Russia during the invasion of Ukraine, using high-frequency survey data. It finds that the death of a friend increases war support. The paper explores mechanisms behind these effects, including sense-making, shifts in exposure to state propaganda, and economic perceptions.

  • Introducing and Validating 'Russia Watcher', A Daily Tracking Survey of Russian Public Opinion

    Working Paper

    Updated on

    Co-Authored with Isabella K.M. DeSisto Laura Howells Grigore Pop-Eleches

    This paper introduces the Russia Watcher (RW) project, a daily online survey tracking public opinion in Russia since May 2022, and validates its findings against prominent online and telephone surveys. Addressing concerns about the reliability of public opinion data in autocracies, the study demonstrates that carefully evaluated surveys remain valuable for understanding citizen-government relations in authoritarian contexts.

  • Preparing the Public for War: Preparatory Propaganda Before Russia's Full-Scale Invasion of Ukraine

    In Progress

    Updated on

    I use a large corpus of Russian media content spanning web to television sources to trace preparatory propaganda strategies leading up to Russia's full-scale invasion. I show that the propaganda campaign began years before the invasion and slowly developed a set of beliefs about the world that would ultimately make the events surrounding the invasion believable and support for the war rational.

  • Multiple Generative AI Agents and Testing Inter-Coder Reliability

    In Progress

    Updated on

    I show that multiple generative AI agents obtain similar levels of inter-coder reliability as human coders when coding soft concepts like emotional content.

  • Moral Framing and the Effectiveness of Pro-War Authoritarian Propaganda

    In Progress

    Updated on

    Using a large corpus of Russian propaganda content, I code the existence of various types of moral appeals using AI-driven methods. By combining this data with the Russia Watcher Survey, I trace the extent to which the prevalence of types of moral appeals are successful and changing attitudes about the war in Ukraine.